项目名称：西南河流源区径流变化机理和未来趋势
English Name: Deciphering changes of river discharge on Tibetan Plateau
关键词：气候变化；植被变化；流域协同演化；产流规律；径流变化归因
Keywords: climate change; vegetation dynamics; landscape co-evolution; runoff
generation; attribution of runoff changes
执行年限/Time: 2021.01-2023.12
摘要：
气候变暖下高寒区径流变化受下垫面协同变化的影响呈现很强的非线性特征，是国际水文水资源研究的热点和难点领域。开展西南河流源区径流变化与未来趋势的研究能够深化对高寒区水文过程机理的认识，对国家水能水资源可持续利用和防洪减灾以及水外交战略具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本申请项目将围绕重大研究计划径流变化目标，针对“不同水源的径流对气候变化的响应机理”这一科学问题，集成已有前沿研究成果，揭示气候变化驱动下西南河流源区土壤-冰雪-植被耦合系统协同变化规律，解析高寒区水文过程对地表关键要素的响应机制，突破源区水量平衡特征和变化规律的研究瓶颈，创新高寒区水文研究理论和方法，在青藏高原径流变化这一热点研究方向取得突破性研究成果；阐明西南河流源区径流变化规律和未来趋势，揭示洪水及其风险的变化规律和趋势，为水能水资源合理开发利用和防洪减灾、以及国际河流的上下游合作提供科技支撑。
Abstract：
Improved understanding of hydrological response to co-evolution of climate and land surface properties is the key research thrust among the hydrology community. Tibetan Plateau provides a unique avenue to investigate the changing hydrological regimes under this context that can greatly advance our knowledge on hydrological cycles in alpine regions. The knowledge will subsequently provide foundations for sustainable water resources and flood risk management as well as maintaining harmonious diplomatic relations between China and its neighbors. The proposal aims to solve one of the three key questions raised in the Major Research plan funded by NSFC, and particularly focuses on the mechanisms of changes in runoff with diverse contributing sources. The following achievements are expected: (1) the co-evolution mechanisms of the integrated soil-ice-snow-vegetation system under the context of climate change over Tibetan Plateau; (2) the physical mechanisms of hydrological response to key land surface properties; (3) the characterization of historical and future changes in runoff and flood risk over Tibetan Plateau. These achievements will collectively contribute to innovative theories and tools for hydrology research in alpine regions that can be further applied into practical challenges involved with water security and collaborations across the borders. |
